J1 League· Regular Season - 15· Machida GION Stadium
Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki21 Nov
Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.1
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Match probabilities
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More Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Machida Zelvia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XMachida Zelvia or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5V-varen Nagasaki +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 67% | 1.50 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 56% | 1.77 | - |
| X2V-varen Nagasaki or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| 1Machida Zelvia to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 44% | 2.29 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Machida Zelvia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 33% | 3.00 | - |
| 2V-varen Nagasaki to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5V-varen Nagasaki -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.88 | - |
Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki preview & analysis
Match preview
Machida Zelvia host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League (Regular Season - 15) at Machida GION Stadium on Saturday, 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 05:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Machida Zelvia arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Tampines Rovers 1-0 away. They're 3rd in the table with 20 points from 9 games. V-varen Nagasaki arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with JEF United Chiba 1-1 away. They're 14th in the table with 9 points from 9 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Machida Zelvia have won 3, V-varen Nagasaki have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 4.0 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Machida Zelvia narrow favourites: Machida Zelvia 44%, draw 38%, V-varen Nagasaki 18%. We expect around 3.0 goals (1.9 - 1.1 in expected goals), with 58% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 58% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Machida Zelvia 2-1 V-varen Nagasaki.
Recent form
Machida Zelvia- 15 OctATampines Rovers1-0
- 10 OctAKyoto Sanga1-0
- 3 OctHKyoto Sanga0-0
- 23 SeptHTochigi City2-1
- 20 SeptHKashiwa Reysol2-4
V-varen Nagasaki- 11 OctAJEF United Chiba1-1
- 7 OctAShimizu S-pulse1-2
- 29 SeptAGainare Tottori0-2
- 19 SeptHCerezo Osaka1-1
- 12 SeptHNagoya Grampus2-0
Head to head
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 |  FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Urawa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Kyoto Sanga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki: FAQ
What is the Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Machida Zelvia 2-1 V-varen Nagasaki.
Who is the favourite to win Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki?
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Machida Zelvia are favourites. Our model gives Machida Zelvia a 44% chance of winning, V-varen Nagasaki 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki?
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We rate both teams to score at 56%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki kick off?
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Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki kicks off at 05:00 UTC on Saturday, 21 November 2026 at Machida GION Stadium, Machida.
