Ligue 1· Regular Season - 7· Stade du Moustoir
Lorient
Monaco18 Oct
Lorient vs Monaco Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
0-1
Fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
1.0 - 1.7
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Expert analysis
Lorient vs Monaco: Goals at both ends the smart play at the Moustoir
Analysis by Lena Vogel
Bundesliga, Ligue 1 & European leagues ·
Monaco travel to Lorient as league leaders but on short rest after European duty, while the hosts have scored in four of their last five. With both defences depleted, both teams to score at 1.75 is the most likely outcome here.
Form and context
Monaco lead Ligue 1, but Lorient are competitive at home and both sides have been involved in high-scoring games lately.
- Monaco are top of the table with 14 points from 6 and unbeaten in the league
- Lorient sit eighth with 8 points from 6, winning two of their last five
- Lorient's last five have produced 3 BTTS games, Monaco's last five 4 BTTS games
- Monaco played CSKA Sofia away on 15 October, so this comes after only three days' recovery
Team news
Squad news is still provisional two days out, but both clubs face defensive absences that point toward goals.
- Monaco confirm Paris Brunner is suspended, as Filipe Luís told the club's official site
- Filipe Luís said Eric Dier has quadriceps discomfort and will be monitored before the weekend, per asmonaco.com
- Sports Mole lists Katseris, Mbamba and Fadiga as potential Lorient absentees, with M. Kone also a doubt
- The Stats Zone flags Camara and Idumbo as Monaco doubts; final squads remain unconfirmed
Head-to-head
This fixture has a long-running habit of producing goals at both ends.
- The last five meetings all saw both teams score: 1-3, 3-1, 2-2, 2-2, 3-1
- Lorient have won the last two meetings, scoring three goals in each
- Every one of those five clashes produced at least three goals
The numbers
The model sees an open game where Monaco edge it but Lorient still register.
- Expected goals read 1.00 for Lorient and 1.67 for Monaco, so both sides project to score
- The most likely scoreline is 0-1, but BTTS is rated the single most likely market outcome at 54%
- Over 2.5 goals is rated at 50%, underlining the goal-friendly profile
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1BTTS is the model's most likely outcome at 54%, beating any single match result
- 2All five recent head-to-heads saw both teams score, with 3+ goals every time
- 3Both defences are weakened: Dier doubtful and Brunner suspended for Monaco, three Lorient absentees
Verdict
Both teams to score is the pick, and 1.75 is the best available price for the outcome the numbers favour most. The main risk is a rotated, leggy Monaco settling for a low-tempo game after their midweek European trip.
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Lorient vs Monaco tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Monaco +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| X2Monaco or Draw | 77% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| AH1 +1.5Lorient +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 71% | 1.40 | 1.22 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| 1XLorient or Draw | 54% | 1.86 | 1.82 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 1.97 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 1.97 |
| 2Monaco to win | 46% | 2.16 | 2.10 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 46% | 2.17 | 2.05 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | 3.58 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.40 | 3.14 |
| AH2 -1.5Monaco -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 29% | 3.48 | 3.66 |
| 1Lorient to win | 23% | 4.26 | 3.86 |
| AH1 -1.5Lorient -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.44 | 8.40 |
Lorient vs Monaco odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.75 | 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 3.86 | 3.58 | 2.10 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.72 | 2.02 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.76 | 3.48 | 2.04 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.89 | 3.42 | 2.07 | 1.96 | 1.93 | - | - |
Recent form
Lorient- 10 OctHParis FC1-0
- 19 SeptALe Mans1-2
- 12 SeptHToulouse2-2
- 5 SeptALens1-0
- 29 AugHEstac Troyes1-2
Monaco- 15 OctACSKA Sofia2-1
- 10 OctHToulouse2-2
- 3 OctHPisa2-0
- 18 SeptHLens2-1
- 12 SeptAStrasbourg1-1
Head to head
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Lorient vs Monaco: FAQ
What is the Lorient vs Monaco prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.75. Our predicted score is Lorient 0-1 Monaco.
Who is the favourite to win Lorient vs Monaco?
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Monaco are favourites. Our model gives Lorient a 23% chance of winning, Monaco 46%, and the draw 30%.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Monaco?
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We rate both teams to score at 54%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Lorient vs Monaco kick off?
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Lorient vs Monaco kicks off at 15:15 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Stade du Moustoir, Lorient.
