Liga MX· Apertura - 14· Estadio León
Leon
Toluca25 Oct
Leon vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.40
Expected goals
1.5 - 2.2
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Leon vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 69% | 1.44 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Leon +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| 1XLeon or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 | - |
| 2Toluca to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.11 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 31% | 3.25 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| 1Leon to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Leon -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.33 | - |
Leon vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
Leon host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 14) at Estadio León on Sunday, 25 October 2026, with kick-off at 23:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Leon arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with Puebla 1-1 away. Toluca are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 2-3 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Leon have won 0, Toluca have won 4 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 4.7 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Leon 23%, draw 38%, Toluca 39%. We expect around 3.7 goals (1.5 - 2.2 in expected goals), with 71% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 71% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Leon 1-2 Toluca.
Recent form
Leon- 10 OctAPuebla1-1
- 28 SeptHFC Juarez2-1
- 21 SeptAClub Queretaro1-1
- 15 SeptHAtletico San Luis2-0
- 11 SeptAU.N.A.M. - Pumas1-3
Toluca- 10 OctATigres UANL2-3
- 4 OctAMonterrey1-2
- 26 SeptACruz Azul3-3
- 21 SeptHSantos Laguna2-3
- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Leon vs Toluca: FAQ
What is the Leon vs Toluca prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Leon 1-2 Toluca.
Who is the favourite to win Leon vs Toluca?
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Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Leon a 23% chance of winning, Toluca 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Leon vs Toluca?
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We rate both teams to score at 69%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Leon vs Toluca kick off?
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Leon vs Toluca kicks off at 23:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at Estadio León, Leon.
