Nations League· League A - 4· Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Italy
Türkiye3-1
FT
Italy vs Türkiye Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 5 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
Add to My Teams
Pick the teams and leagues you care about. We save them on this device, no sign-up needed.
Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Italy vs Türkiye tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Italy +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.06 | - |
| 1XItaly or Draw | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Türkiye +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | - |
| X2Türkiye or Draw | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 53% | 1.89 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 47% | 2.13 | - |
| 1Italy to win | 47% | 2.14 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Italy -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | - |
| 2Türkiye to win | 12% | 8.06 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Türkiye -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 18.95 | - |
Italy vs Türkiye preview & analysis
Match preview
Italy host Türkiye in the Nations League (League A - 4) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Monday, 5 October 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Italy arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Most recently they drew with France 1-1 away. They're 2nd in the table with 7 points from 4 games. Türkiye are struggling for results, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Most recently they lost to Belgium 0-3 away. They're 4th in the table with 0 points from 4 games.
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings between these sides, Italy have won 3, Türkiye have won 0 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 3.3 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Italy favourites: Italy 47%, draw 41%, Türkiye 12%. We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 58% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Italy- 2 OctAFrance1-1
- 28 SeptATürkiye4-1
- 25 SeptHBelgium0-2
- 7 JunAGreece1-0
- 3 JunALuxembourg1-0
Türkiye- 2 OctABelgium0-3
- 28 SeptHItaly1-4
- 25 SeptHFrance0-1
- 26 JunHUSA3-2
- 20 JunHParaguay0-1
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Italy vs Türkiye: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Italy vs Türkiye?
+
Italy are favourites. Our model gives Italy a 47% chance of winning, Türkiye 12%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in Italy vs Türkiye?
+
We rate both teams to score at 53%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Italy vs Türkiye kick off?
+
Italy vs Türkiye kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Monday, 5 October 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna.
