Eredivisie· Regular Season - 9· Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen
Excelsior4-0
FT
Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 16 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Heerenveen to win
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
2.3 - 1.2
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Expert analysis
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: Home win the most likely outcome
Analysis by Lena Vogel
Bundesliga, Ligue 1 & European leagues ·
Heerenveen host Excelsior on Friday night with the home win rated the most likely outcome at 50%. Excelsior arrive off a 1-5 home defeat, and our tip is Heerenveen to win at 1.71.
Form and context
Neither side is in strong form, but the underlying numbers favour the hosts.
- Both teams have identical recent records: 1W 2D 2L in their last five.
- Excelsior conceded 11 goals in five games, with over 2.5 landing in all five.
- Excelsior lost 1-5 at home to Groningen last time out, a heavy defensive collapse.
- Heerenveen kept a clean sheet against Telstar and won 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam recently.
- The model expects 2.17 home goals against 1.22 for the visitors.
Team news
Both sides have availability concerns, with Heerenveen's more clearly defined.
- Heerenveen miss Dirk Proper with a hamstring injury; coach Veldman hopes he returns next week, per feanonline.nl.
- Backup goalkeeper Andries Noppert is a doubt with a back problem, per feanonline.nl.
- Excelsior midfielder Noah Naujoks is questionable and was left out of Sports Mole's predicted XI.
- Sports Mole's predicted line-ups remain provisional until official teams are announced.
Head-to-head and tactics
Recent meetings lean Heerenveen's way, and set-pieces are Excelsior's main weapon.
- Heerenveen won the last two meetings 2-1 home and away.
- Veldman warned that Excelsior score nearly half their goals from free-kicks and corners, per feanonline.nl.
- Excelsior coach Ruben den Uil called the Groningen loss a setback the team must move on from, per feanonline.nl.
- The 2-1 home scoreline is rated the single most likely result.
The numbers
The home win is the most probable outcome, so we take the best available price.
- Model rates Heerenveen at 50%, the draw at 26% and Excelsior at 24%.
- Best odds for the home win are 1.71.
- This is a strong-probability pick rather than a big-value price, so returns are modest.
- Over 2.5 goals is rated 66%, so an open game would still suit the hosts' edge in front of goal.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Home win is the most likely outcome at 50% with expected goals of 2.17 against 1.22
- 2Excelsior conceded 11 in five and lost 1-5 to Groningen last time
- 3Heerenveen won both of the last two head-to-head meetings 2-1
Verdict
Our tip is Heerenveen to win at best odds of 1.71. It is the most likely outcome, but with both teams level on recent form and Excelsior dangerous from set-pieces, this is no formality.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Heerenveen vs Excelsior tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Heerenveen +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| 1XHeerenveen or Draw | 78% | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 65% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| AH2 +1.5Excelsior +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 59% | 1.71 | 1.59 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | 1.84 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 2.01 |
| X2Excelsior or Draw | 47% | 2.12 | 2.40 |
| AH1 -1.5Heerenveen -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 41% | 2.42 | 2.43 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 35% | 2.82 | 2.62 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.08 | 2.78 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | 4.46 |
| 2Excelsior to win | 22% | 4.50 | 5.31 |
| AH2 -1.5Excelsior -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 15.22 | 9.40 |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.20 | 4.80 | - | - | 1.44 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.46 | 5.31 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.62 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.33 | 5.15 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.25 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.55 | 5.17 | 1.43 | 2.94 | - | - |
Recent form
Heerenveen- 9 OctAPSV Eindhoven0-2
- 19 SeptASparta Rotterdam4-0
- 13 SeptHTelstar0-0
- 6 SeptHAZ Alkmaar2-3
- 30 AugAWillem II2-2
Excelsior- 11 OctHGroningen1-5
- 19 SeptAAjax2-2
- 13 SeptHUtrecht1-2
- 8 SeptANEC Nijmegen2-2
- 5 SeptAWillem II3-0
Head to head
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: FAQ
What is the Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction?
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Our tip is Heerenveen to win at odds of 1.59. Our predicted score is Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior.
Who is the favourite to win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
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Heerenveen are favourites. Our model gives Heerenveen a 53% chance of winning, Excelsior 22%, and the draw 25%.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
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We rate both teams to score at 65%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Heerenveen vs Excelsior kick off?
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Heerenveen vs Excelsior kicks off at 18:00 UTC on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen.
