Liga MX· Apertura - 13· Estadio Akron
Guadalajara Chivas
Necaxa21 Oct
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.2
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Guadalajara Chivas +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XGuadalajara Chivas or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Necaxa +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 64% | 1.56 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 61% | 1.64 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| X2Necaxa or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| 1Guadalajara Chivas to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 39% | 2.57 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Guadalajara Chivas -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 36% | 2.79 | - |
| 2Necaxa to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Necaxa -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.34 | - |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa preview & analysis
Match preview
Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa in the Liga MX (Apertura - 13) at Estadio Akron on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, with kick-off at 00:07 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Guadalajara Chivas arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Most recently they drew with Atlas 1-1 away. They're 4th in the table with 19 points from 11 games. Necaxa are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Most recently they drew with CF Pachuca 3-3 away. They're 17th in the table with 9 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Guadalajara Chivas have won 3, Necaxa have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas narrow favourites: Guadalajara Chivas 44%, draw 38%, Necaxa 18%. We expect around 3.3 goals (2.1 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 64% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 64% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Necaxa.
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas- 11 OctAAtlas1-1
- 5 OctHClub America2-0
- 27 SeptHClub Queretaro0-2
- 20 SeptAClub America2-2
- 14 SeptHU.N.A.M. - Pumas3-0
Necaxa- 12 OctACF Pachuca3-3
- 28 SeptHClub America2-4
- 20 SeptAAtletico San Luis1-3
- 12 SeptHPuebla0-1
- 6 SeptATigres UANL1-1
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa: FAQ
What is the Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Necaxa.
Who is the favourite to win Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
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Guadalajara Chivas are favourites. Our model gives Guadalajara Chivas a 44% chance of winning, Necaxa 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
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We rate both teams to score at 61%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa kick off?
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Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa kicks off at 00:07 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at Estadio Akron, Zapopan.
