Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 9
Estrela
Casa Pia24 Oct
Estrela vs Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
1.7 - 0.9
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Match probabilities
More Estrela vs Casa Pia tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Estrela +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 94% | 1.07 | 1.01 |
| 1XEstrela or Draw | 80% | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| AH2 +1.5Casa Pia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.47 | 1.28 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 51% | 1.98 | 1.83 |
| X2Casa Pia or Draw | 50% | 1.99 | 1.96 |
| 1Estrela to win | 50% | 2.01 | 1.90 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 49% | 2.03 | 1.91 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 | 2.03 |
| AH1 -1.5Estrela -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.14 | 3.10 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.35 | 3.62 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.61 | 3.20 |
| 2Casa Pia to win | 20% | 4.90 | 4.38 |
| AH2 -1.5Casa Pia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 6% | 16.33 | 8.70 |
Estrela vs Casa Pia odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.20 | - | - | 1.83 | 1.91 |
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.62 | 4.38 | 2.03 | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.48 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.45 | 4.35 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
Estrela vs Casa Pia preview & analysis
Match preview
Estrela host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 9) on Saturday, 24 October 2026, with kick-off at 14:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Estrela arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to Arouca 0-1 away. They're 10th in the table with 10 points from 8 games. Casa Pia are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to Santa Clara 0-1 at home. They're 17th in the table with 4 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Estrela have won 3, Casa Pia have won 3 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Estrela favourites: Estrela 50%, draw 30%, Casa Pia 20%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.7 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 48% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.86, which our model rates at a 52% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Estrela 1-0 Casa Pia.
Recent form
Estrela- 11 OctAArouca0-1
- 20 SeptHAcademico Viseu0-2
- 14 SeptARio Ave3-3
- 10 SeptHSC Braga2-1
- 5 SeptHFamalicao2-2
Casa Pia- 10 OctHSanta Clara0-1
- 20 SeptAEstoril2-1
- 12 SeptHFC Porto1-4
- 6 SeptAVitória SC0-0
- 30 AugHMoreirense0-1
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Estrela vs Casa Pia: FAQ
What is the Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.86. Our predicted score is Estrela 1-0 Casa Pia.
Who is the favourite to win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
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Estrela are favourites. Our model gives Estrela a 50% chance of winning, Casa Pia 20%, and the draw 30%.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
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We rate both teams to score at 51%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Estrela vs Casa Pia kick off?
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Estrela vs Casa Pia kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026.
