Liga MX· Apertura - 17· Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
CF Pachuca
Toluca21 Nov
CF Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.4
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More CF Pachuca vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5CF Pachuca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XCF Pachuca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 1CF Pachuca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5CF Pachuca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.13 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 2Toluca to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.74 | - |
CF Pachuca vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
CF Pachuca host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 17) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo on Saturday, 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 23:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
CF Pachuca arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with Necaxa 3-3 at home. They're 11th in the table with 13 points from 11 games. Toluca are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 2-3 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, CF Pachuca have won 2, Toluca have won 1 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 3.0 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes CF Pachuca narrow favourites: CF Pachuca 44%, draw 38%, Toluca 18%. We expect around 3.8 goals (2.4 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score, which our model rates at a 68% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is CF Pachuca 2-1 Toluca.
Recent form
CF Pachuca- 12 OctHNecaxa3-3
- 27 SeptASantos Laguna0-1
- 21 SeptHClub Tijuana2-2
- 12 SeptAAtlante FC3-0
- 5 SeptAFC Juarez2-0
Toluca- 10 OctATigres UANL2-3
- 4 OctAMonterrey1-2
- 26 SeptACruz Azul3-3
- 21 SeptHSantos Laguna2-3
- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
CF Pachuca vs Toluca: FAQ
What is the CF Pachuca vs Toluca prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score. Our predicted score is CF Pachuca 2-1 Toluca.
Who is the favourite to win CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
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CF Pachuca are favourites. Our model gives CF Pachuca a 44% chance of winning, Toluca 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does CF Pachuca vs Toluca kick off?
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CF Pachuca vs Toluca kicks off at 23:00 UTC on Saturday, 21 November 2026 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto.
