La Liga· Regular Season - 9· Municipal de Balaídos
Celta Vigo
Alaves18 Oct
Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.4 - 0.9
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Expert analysis
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: Under 2.5 Goals Likely
Analysis by Diego Ferraz
LaLiga, Serie A & South America ·
Celta sit ninth with a solid defensive record while Alaves trail in the standings and lack cutting edge up front. The low expected goals and model probabilities strongly point to a tight affair with Under 2.5 goals as the strong probability pick.
Form and Context
Celta show mixed results in recent games but maintain a low goal output overall.
- In 5 games they recorded 1W 2D 2L with 7 scored and 4 conceded.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in just 2 of those matches.
- Alaves sit 7th with 11 points from 8 but have 3 overs and 3 BTTS in their last 5.
- Home advantage for Celta at Balaidos with recent competitive performances.
- Momentum favors controlled shape against a struggling Alaves side.
Team News
Team news remains provisional as kickoff nears with multiple absences reported.
- Celta without Starfelt, Román, El Abdellaoui, Iglesias and Duran for injuries including calf and knee.
- Alaves miss Garces suspended, Perez red carded and Rodriguez with ankle issue.
- No confirmed lineups yet but defensive shape expected from both sides.
- According to Sports Mole previews several front three options remain uncertain for Celta.
Key Duels and Tactics
Pressing and key duels will decide but momentum favors low output.
- Celta press aggressively but Alaves counter effectively in recent H2H.
- Midfield battles between Febas, Moriba and Blanco, Suarez could be tense.
- Alaves manager notes the game will be new and demanding.
- Celta aim to convert form into wins with limited chances according to Quique Sánchez Flores.
The Numbers
Stats and models indicate a strong under 2.5 probability.
- Expected goals 1.48-0.92 pointing to a 1-0 or 1-1 most likely score.
- Over 2.5 probability at 43% with BTTS at 49%.
- Recent H2H shows mix but current form totals support tight game.
- Model gives 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Celta defensive solidity with only 4 conceded in 5 games
- 2Alaves scoring limited with 7 in 5 matches and poor recent attack
- 3Model probabilities and low expected goals favor under 2.5 goals
Verdict
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 odds. The main risk is if Celta's attack clicks and creates more chances than expected.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Celta Vigo vs Alaves tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Celta Vigo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.19 |
| AH2 +1.5Alaves +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 76% | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| 1XCelta Vigo or Draw | 75% | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| X2Alaves or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | 1.75 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 49% | 2.05 | 1.90 |
| 1Celta Vigo to win | 44% | 2.28 | 2.23 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 | 2.30 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.19 | 3.42 |
| 2Alaves to win | 25% | 4.04 | 3.64 |
| AH1 -1.5Celta Vigo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 24% | 4.14 | 4.30 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 4.31 | 4.05 |
| AH2 -1.5Alaves -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.70 | 8.30 |
Celta Vigo vs Alaves odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 | - | - | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.42 | 3.64 | 2.30 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.34 | 3.56 | 2.23 | 1.67 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.13 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.26 | 3.55 | 2.31 | 1.66 | - | - |
Recent form
Celta Vigo- 15 OctHJuventus1-2
- 11 OctAElche0-0
- 19 SeptHRacing Santander5-0
- 16 SeptAOmonia Nicosia0-1
- 13 SeptHMalaga1-1
Alaves- 10 OctHAtletico Madrid1-2
- 19 SeptAAthletic Club0-0
- 15 SeptHValencia0-1
- 12 SeptARacing Santander1-2
- 6 SeptHOsasuna5-2
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: FAQ
What is the Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72. Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 1-0 Alaves.
Who is the favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
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Celta Vigo are favourites. Our model gives Celta Vigo a 44% chance of winning, Alaves 25%, and the draw 31%.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
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We rate both teams to score at 49%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Celta Vigo vs Alaves kick off?
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Celta Vigo vs Alaves kicks off at 14:15 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo.
