Championship· Regular Season - 8· Turf Moor
Burnley
Derby1-1
FT
Burnley vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 19 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Burnley vs Derby tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Burnley +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XBurnley or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Derby +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.46 | - |
| X2Derby or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 53% | 1.89 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 47% | 2.12 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | - |
| 1Burnley to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Burnley -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.17 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | - |
| 2Derby to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Derby -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.34 | - |
Burnley vs Derby preview & analysis
Match preview
Burnley host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 8) at Turf Moor on Saturday, 19 September 2026, with kick-off at 14:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Burnley arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Most recently they lost to Swansea 1-3 away. They're 21st in the table with 8 points from 10 games. Derby are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 3 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 6. Most recently they lost to Birmingham 1-2 at home. They're 23rd in the table with 6 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Burnley have won 3, Derby have won 0 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 1.7 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Burnley narrow favourites: Burnley 44%, draw 38%, Derby 18%. We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 53% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Burnley- 12 SeptASwansea1-3
- 8 SeptAWrexham1-1
- 5 SeptHBristol City1-2
Derby- 12 SeptHBirmingham1-2
- 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
- 5 SeptAWest Ham0-3
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Burnley vs Derby: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Burnley vs Derby?
+
Burnley are favourites. Our model gives Burnley a 44% chance of winning, Derby 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby?
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We rate both teams to score at 53%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Burnley vs Derby kick off?
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Burnley vs Derby kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 19 September 2026 at Turf Moor, Burnley.
