Benfica vs Celtic Prediction & Betting Tips

Benfica's last five games read 4W 0D 1L, with 12 scored and 4 conceded, and three of those five went over 2.5 goals. They opened the league phase with a 2-0 win away at AC Milan, lost 3-1 at Porto, then beat Vitória SC 2-0 and GIL Vicente 3-1 at home before a 4-0 win at Moreirense. UEFA confirms that leaves them on 3 points from one game, 7th of 36. Celtic are 28th of 36 with 0 points from one after a 3-1 home defeat to Ferencváros. Their five-game record is 2W 0D 3L, 4 scored and 7 conceded, with over 2.5 landing in two of the five. They ended a three-game losing run with a 2-0 win at Motherwell on 11 October, so they arrive with something to build on, but Lisbon is a very different test.

Benfica are without Jakub Kamiński and Daniel Banjaqui, with Portuguese reports stating Benfica's official training report on 14 October confirmed both were working individually with thigh muscle injuries, while Enzo Barrenechea remains unavailable after surgery. Alexander Bah trained without restrictions and is available, and Marco Silva confirmed at his pre-match press conference that Anatoliy Trubin starts in goal, though he was less certain about his centre-back pairing. For Celtic, Alistair Johnston, Callum Osmand and Yang Hyun-Jun are listed as missing, and Cameron Carter-Vickers is expected to sit out after missing training. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is available again after suspension, but Jota is ineligible for this competition. Projected line-ups have been published by Racing Post and others, with Camilo Durán's inclusion uncertain after he missed training for the birth of his child, but no official XI had been confirmed.

This probably comes down to whether Celtic's makeshift back line can cope with Benfica's attack. Marco Silva told the Scottish Sun that "it's not easy to play in our stadium and it's going to be a tough night for Celtic", while Martin O'Neill responded that "we have great players too". Celtic's recent away showings ranged from a 0-3 loss at Rangers to a 1-0 win at St Johnstone, so they have been either solid or badly exposed. Carter-Vickers' likely absence removes their most experienced central defender, which is exactly the situation where a home side turns territory into goals.

Expected goals read 2.64 for Benfica and 0.74 for Celtic, and the model puts over 2.5 goals at 66%, with a fair price of 1.52. The best price available is 1.47, which is why this is a probability call rather than a value price - you are backing the most likely outcome, not finding one the market has mispriced. Both teams scoring sits at 50%. The main risk is a scrappy, cagey European night: Celtic could sit deep, slow the game down and frustrate the hosts, and the last meetings between these two produced a 2-1 and a 0-0. If the visitors keep it tight early, this can drift under the line.