Brasileirão· Regular Season - 16· Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia
Gremio1-1
FT
Bahia vs Gremio Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 17 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Bahia vs Gremio tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Bahia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 94% | 1.06 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 | - |
| 1XBahia or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Gremio +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 63% | 1.59 | - |
| X2Gremio or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| 1Bahia to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 37% | 2.70 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.09 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Bahia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 23% | 4.31 | - |
| 2Gremio to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 7.00 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Gremio -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 6% | 16.68 | - |
Bahia vs Gremio preview & analysis
Match preview
Bahia host Gremio in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 16) at Arena Fonte Nova on Sunday, 17 May 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Bahia have won 3, Gremio have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 1.8 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Bahia narrow favourites: Bahia 44%, draw 38%, Gremio 18%. We expect around 2.0 goals (1.3 - 0.7 in expected goals), with 32% for over 2.5 and 37% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Bahia vs Gremio: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Bahia vs Gremio?
+
Bahia are favourites. Our model gives Bahia a 44% chance of winning, Gremio 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Gremio?
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We rate both teams to score at 37%, so BTTS No is the better bet.
When does Bahia vs Gremio kick off?
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Bahia vs Gremio kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Sunday, 17 May 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador.
