Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 8· Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca
Estrela1-0
FT
Arouca vs Estrela Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
More Arouca vs Estrela tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Arouca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| AH2 +1.5Estrela +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 76% | 1.31 | 1.18 |
| 1XArouca or Draw | 71% | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| X2Estrela or Draw | 58% | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 56% | 1.79 | 1.67 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 1.90 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 | 1.98 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 44% | 2.27 | 2.10 |
| 1Arouca to win | 42% | 2.37 | 2.20 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.30 | 2.97 |
| 2Estrela to win | 29% | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.64 |
| AH1 -1.5Arouca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 24% | 4.23 | 3.85 |
| AH2 -1.5Estrela -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.81 | 6.65 |
Arouca vs Estrela odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 | - | - | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.64 | 3.34 | 1.90 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.08 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.35 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.13 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.42 | 3.41 | 1.90 | 1.99 | - | - |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.22 | 3.07 | 1.86 | 1.98 | - | - |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
Arouca vs Estrela preview & analysis
Match preview
Arouca host Estrela in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 8) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca on Sunday, 11 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Arouca arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Most recently they drew with Sporting CP 2-2 away. They're 5th in the table with 14 points from 8 games. Estrela arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Most recently they lost to Academico Viseu 0-2 at home. They're 10th in the table with 10 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Arouca have won 3, Estrela have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Arouca narrow favourites: Arouca 42%, draw 29%, Estrela 29%. We expect around 2.7 goals (1.6 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 51% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Arouca- 19 SeptASporting CP2-2
- 13 SeptHSanta Clara1-2
- 7 SeptAEstoril0-0
- 29 AugHMaritimo2-1
- 23 AugAFC Porto0-2
Estrela- 20 SeptHAcademico Viseu0-2
- 14 SeptARio Ave3-3
- 10 SeptHSC Braga2-1
- 5 SeptHFamalicao2-2
- 30 AugANacional3-2
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Arouca vs Estrela: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Arouca vs Estrela?
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Arouca are favourites. Our model gives Arouca a 42% chance of winning, Estrela 29%, and the draw 29%.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?
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We rate both teams to score at 56%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Arouca vs Estrela kick off?
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Arouca vs Estrela kicks off at 19:30 UTC on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca.
