Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 8· Estádio dos Arcos
Rio Ave
Nacional3-2
FT
Rio Ave vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
More Rio Ave vs Nacional tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Rio Ave +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| 1XRio Ave or Draw | 75% | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| AH2 +1.5Nacional +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 73% | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| X2Nacional or Draw | 55% | 1.81 | 1.77 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 54% | 1.86 | 1.75 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 1.90 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 | 1.98 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 46% | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| 1Rio Ave to win | 45% | 2.24 | 2.19 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | 3.58 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.53 | 3.20 |
| AH1 -1.5Rio Ave -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 27% | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 2Nacional to win | 25% | 4.04 | 3.54 |
| AH2 -1.5Nacional -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.24 | 7.70 |
Rio Ave vs Nacional odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | - | - | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.58 | 3.54 | 1.98 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.40 | 3.45 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.44 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 1.97 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.32 | 3.71 | 1.99 | 1.90 | - | - |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.09 | 3.13 | 1.94 | 1.90 | - | - |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Rio Ave vs Nacional preview & analysis
Match preview
Rio Ave host Nacional in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 8) at Estádio dos Arcos on Sunday, 11 October 2026, with kick-off at 14:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Rio Ave are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 12. Most recently they lost to Alverca 0-1 away. They're 14th in the table with 7 points from 8 games. Nacional are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 13. Most recently they lost to Famalicao 0-4 at home. They're 16th in the table with 4 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Rio Ave have won 1, Nacional have won 2 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 3.2 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Rio Ave narrow favourites: Rio Ave 45%, draw 31%, Nacional 25%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.6 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 49% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Rio Ave- 19 SeptAAlverca0-1
- 14 SeptHEstrela3-3
- 6 SeptASanta Clara0-4
- 28 AugHSporting CP0-4
- 22 AugAEstoril2-0
Nacional- 19 SeptHFamalicao0-4
- 12 SeptHAlverca1-3
- 5 SeptASporting CP0-2
- 30 AugHEstrela2-3
- 23 AugAVitória SC0-1
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Rio Ave vs Nacional: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Rio Ave vs Nacional?
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Rio Ave are favourites. Our model gives Rio Ave a 45% chance of winning, Nacional 25%, and the draw 31%.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
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We rate both teams to score at 54%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Rio Ave vs Nacional kick off?
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Rio Ave vs Nacional kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Estádio dos Arcos, Condi Town.
