Eredivisie· Regular Season - 11· Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar31 Oct
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
1.6 - 2.2
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5AZ Alkmaar +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| X2AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 71% | 1.42 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Ajax +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 67% | 1.49 | - |
| 1XAjax or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 2AZ Alkmaar to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5AZ Alkmaar -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 33% | 3.06 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 29% | 3.39 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 1Ajax to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Ajax -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.24 | - |
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar preview & analysis
Match preview
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 11) at Johan Cruijff Arena on Saturday, 31 October 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Ajax arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 away. They're 5th in the table with 15 points from 8 games. AZ Alkmaar arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 at home. They're 3rd in the table with 19 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Ajax have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 4 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 3.2 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar narrow favourites: Ajax 23%, draw 38%, AZ Alkmaar 39%. We expect around 3.8 goals (1.6 - 2.2 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 71% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 73% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Ajax 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Recent form
Ajax- 15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1-2
- 10 OctHNEC Nijmegen1-1
- 19 SeptHExcelsior2-2
- 15 SeptHWillem II5-1
- 12 SeptAFortuna Sittard5-1
AZ Alkmaar- 15 OctHHapoel Beer Sheva2-1
- 10 OctAFeyenoord0-2
- 20 SeptHTelstar1-0
- 16 SeptASunderland0-1
- 11 SeptHWillem II1-1
Head to head
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: FAQ
What is the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Ajax 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who is the favourite to win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
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AZ Alkmaar are favourites. Our model gives Ajax a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
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We rate both teams to score at 71%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
