A-League· Regular Season - 1· Sky Stadium
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne Victory18 Oct
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.2 - 1.9
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Match probabilities
More Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Melbourne Victory +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 90% | 1.11 | 1.06 |
| X2Melbourne Victory or Draw | 74% | 1.35 | 1.39 |
| AH1 +1.5Wellington Phoenix +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | 1.46 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.68 | 1.63 |
| 1XWellington Phoenix or Draw | 55% | 1.81 | 1.70 |
| 2Melbourne Victory to win | 45% | 2.23 | 2.21 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.47 | 2.36 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.58 | 2.38 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 38% | 2.63 | 2.44 |
| AH2 -1.5Melbourne Victory -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.38 | 3.84 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | 3.84 |
| 1Wellington Phoenix to win | 26% | 3.84 | 3.09 |
| AH1 -1.5Wellington Phoenix -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 10% | 9.87 | 6.05 |
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 | - | - | 1.53 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 3.09 | 3.84 | 2.21 | 1.63 | 2.36 | 1.49 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.70 | 2.13 | 1.58 | 2.29 | 1.49 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.56 | 2.24 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.81 | 2.13 | 1.59 | 2.37 | - | - |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.09 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory preview & analysis
Match preview
Wellington Phoenix host Melbourne Victory in the A-League (Regular Season - 1) at Sky Stadium on Sunday, 18 October 2026, with kick-off at 02:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Wellington Phoenix arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Most recently they lost to Macarthur 0-4 away. They're 7th in the table with 0 points from 0 games. Melbourne Victory arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Most recently they beat FC Seoul 3-0 at home. They're 8th in the table with 0 points from 0 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Wellington Phoenix have won 2, Melbourne Victory have won 4 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.2 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Melbourne Victory narrow favourites: Wellington Phoenix 26%, draw 29%, Melbourne Victory 45%. We expect around 3.1 goals (1.2 - 1.9 in expected goals), with 59% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score at 1.53, which our model rates at a 62% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory.
Recent form
Wellington Phoenix- 24 AprAMacarthur0-4
- 18 AprHWestern Sydney Wanderers2-1
- 12 AprAMelbourne City0-2
- 5 AprAMelbourne Victory1-0
- 21 MarABrisbane Roar2-1
Melbourne Victory- 14 OctHFC Seoul3-0
- 10 OctASouth Melbourne1-1
- 16 SeptAViettel1-1
- 9 SeptASydney2-0
- 19 AugAAPIA Leichhardt Tigers1-0
Head to head
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Central Coast Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Perth Glory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Sydney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Wellington Phoenix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Melbourne City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Macarthur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: FAQ
What is the Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.53. Our predicted score is Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory.
Who is the favourite to win Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
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Melbourne Victory are favourites. Our model gives Wellington Phoenix a 26% chance of winning, Melbourne Victory 45%, and the draw 29%.
Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
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We rate both teams to score at 62%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory kick off?
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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory kicks off at 02:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Sky Stadium, Wellington.
