Liga MX· Apertura - 16· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
Monterrey8 Nov
Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.3
Add to My Teams
Pick the teams and leagues you care about. We save them on this device, no sign-up needed.
Fan vote
Who will win?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
How many goals?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Toluca vs Monterrey tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XToluca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Monterrey +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 61% | 1.64 | - |
| X2Monterrey or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 | - |
| 1Toluca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 39% | 2.57 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 33% | 3.01 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| 2Monterrey to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Monterrey -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 11.84 | - |
Toluca vs Monterrey preview & analysis
Match preview
Toluca host Monterrey in the Liga MX (Apertura - 16) at Estadio Nemesio Diez on Sunday, 8 November 2026, with kick-off at 01:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Toluca are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 2-3 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games. Monterrey arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with Club America 1-1 away. They're 10th in the table with 14 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toluca have won 4, Monterrey have won 2 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.3 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Toluca 44%, draw 38%, Monterrey 18%. We expect around 3.7 goals (2.4 - 1.3 in expected goals), with 71% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score, which our model rates at a 67% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Toluca 2-1 Monterrey.
Recent form
Toluca- 10 OctATigres UANL2-3
- 4 OctAMonterrey1-2
- 26 SeptACruz Azul3-3
- 21 SeptHSantos Laguna2-3
- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
Monterrey- 11 OctAClub America1-1
- 4 OctHToluca2-1
- 26 SeptAAtlante FC2-4
- 20 SeptHCruz Azul1-0
- 13 SeptHTigres UANL0-0
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Toluca vs Monterrey: FAQ
What is the Toluca vs Monterrey prediction?
+
Our tip is Both teams to score. Our predicted score is Toluca 2-1 Monterrey.
Who is the favourite to win Toluca vs Monterrey?
+
Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Toluca a 44% chance of winning, Monterrey 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Monterrey?
+
We rate both teams to score at 67%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Toluca vs Monterrey kick off?
+
Toluca vs Monterrey kicks off at 01:00 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
