Liga MX· Clausura - Quarter-finals· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
CF Pachuca0-1
FT
Toluca vs CF Pachuca Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 4 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Toluca vs CF Pachuca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XToluca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 67% | 1.50 | - |
| AH2 +1.5CF Pachuca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 61% | 1.64 | - |
| X2CF Pachuca or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 | - |
| 1Toluca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 39% | 2.57 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 33% | 3.01 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| 2CF Pachuca to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5CF Pachuca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 11.84 | - |
Toluca vs CF Pachuca preview & analysis
Match preview
Toluca host CF Pachuca in the Liga MX (Clausura - Quarter-finals) at Estadio Nemesio Diez on Monday, 4 May 2026, with kick-off at 01:15 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toluca have won 3, CF Pachuca have won 0 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 4.2 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Toluca 44%, draw 38%, CF Pachuca 18%. We expect around 3.7 goals (2.4 - 1.3 in expected goals), with 71% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | +17 | 36 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | +16 | 36 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | +13 | 33 |
| 4 | CF Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 |  Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +10 | 25 |
| 8 |  Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +3 | 25 |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 |  Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 |  Club Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  FC Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 |  Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 |  Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -18 | 12 |
Toluca vs CF Pachuca: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
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Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Toluca a 44% chance of winning, CF Pachuca 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
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We rate both teams to score at 67%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Toluca vs CF Pachuca kick off?
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Toluca vs CF Pachuca kicks off at 01:15 UTC on Monday, 4 May 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
