Liga MX· Apertura - 8· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
Atlas5-2
FT
Toluca vs Atlas Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 13 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Toluca vs Atlas tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XToluca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Atlas +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 69% | 1.44 | - |
| X2Atlas or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 51% | 1.96 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 49% | 2.05 | - |
| 1Toluca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 31% | 3.27 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| 2Atlas to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Atlas -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.61 | - |
Toluca vs Atlas preview & analysis
Match preview
Toluca host Atlas in the Liga MX (Apertura - 8) at Estadio Nemesio Diez on Sunday, 13 September 2026, with kick-off at 23:05 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Atlas arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 4. Most recently they drew with Atlante FC 1-1 at home. They're 6th in the table with 18 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toluca have won 3, Atlas have won 0 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Toluca 44%, draw 38%, Atlas 18%. We expect around 2.7 goals (1.7 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 51% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
Recent form
TolucaAtlas- 6 SeptHAtlante FC1-1
- 30 AugHClub Queretaro1-3
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Toluca vs Atlas: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Toluca vs Atlas?
+
Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Toluca a 44% chance of winning, Atlas 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atlas?
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We rate both teams to score at 51%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Toluca vs Atlas kick off?
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Toluca vs Atlas kicks off at 23:05 UTC on Sunday, 13 September 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
