Championship· Regular Season - 16· St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton
Derby21 Nov
Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams NOT to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
1.9 - 0.8
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Southampton vs Derby tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Southampton +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | - |
| 1XSouthampton or Draw | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Derby +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 64% | 1.57 | - |
| X2Derby or Draw | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 48% | 2.09 | - |
| 1Southampton to win | 47% | 2.14 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Southampton -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 36% | 2.75 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| 2Derby to win | 12% | 8.06 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Derby -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 19.79 | - |
Southampton vs Derby preview & analysis
Match preview
Southampton host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 16) at St. Mary's Stadium on Saturday, 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 12:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Southampton arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Most recently they beat Norwich 1-0 away. They're 8th in the table with 16 points from 10 games. Derby are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to QPR 1-4 away. They're 23rd in the table with 6 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Southampton have won 2, Derby have won 0 and 4 ended level. Those games averaged 3.8 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Southampton favourites: Southampton 47%, draw 41%, Derby 12%. We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 - 0.8 in expected goals), with 51% for over 2.5 and 48% for both teams to score.
Our tip
At least one of these sides should struggle to score, so we're backing BTTS No. Our pick is Both teams NOT to score, which our model rates at a 52% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Southampton 1-0 Derby.
Recent form
Southampton- 14 OctANorwich1-0
- 11 OctHPortsmouth1-0
- 19 SeptAWrexham1-2
- 12 SeptHBristol City4-1
- 8 SeptHSwansea3-1
Derby- 14 OctAQPR1-4
- 10 OctHWrexham1-1
- 19 SeptABurnley1-1
- 12 SeptHBirmingham1-2
- 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Southampton vs Derby: FAQ
What is the Southampton vs Derby prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams NOT to score. Our predicted score is Southampton 1-0 Derby.
Who is the favourite to win Southampton vs Derby?
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Southampton are favourites. Our model gives Southampton a 47% chance of winning, Derby 12%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Derby?
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We rate both teams to score at 48%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Southampton vs Derby kick off?
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Southampton vs Derby kicks off at 12:30 UTC on Saturday, 21 November 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton.
