Brasileirão· Regular Season - 36· Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Santos
Gremio22 Nov
Santos vs Gremio Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 22 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.0
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Santos vs Gremio tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Santos +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XSantos or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Gremio +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.46 | - |
| X2Gremio or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 53% | 1.89 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 47% | 2.12 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | - |
| 1Santos to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Santos -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.17 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | - |
| 2Gremio to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Gremio -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.34 | - |
Santos vs Gremio preview & analysis
Match preview
Santos host Gremio in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 36) at Estadio Urbano Caldeira on Sunday, 22 November 2026, with kick-off at 21:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Santos arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 1-2 away. They're 8th in the table with 42 points from 30 games. Gremio arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Most recently they drew with Internacional 1-1 at home. They're 18th in the table with 31 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Santos have won 2, Gremio have won 3 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Santos narrow favourites: Santos 44%, draw 38%, Gremio 18%. We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 53% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 53% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Santos 1-0 Gremio.
Recent form
Santos- 11 OctAAtletico-MG1-2
- 8 OctHFlamengo2-2
- 3 OctASao Paulo2-1
- 19 SeptARemo2-1
- 16 SeptAAtletico-MG2-4
Gremio- 11 OctHInternacional1-1
- 7 OctARemo1-1
- 20 SeptHPalmeiras0-0
- 16 SeptABotafogo2-3
- 12 SeptHVasco DA Gama1-2
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Santos vs Gremio: FAQ
What is the Santos vs Gremio prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Santos 1-0 Gremio.
Who is the favourite to win Santos vs Gremio?
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Santos are favourites. Our model gives Santos a 44% chance of winning, Gremio 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Gremio?
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We rate both teams to score at 53%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Santos vs Gremio kick off?
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Santos vs Gremio kicks off at 21:00 UTC on Sunday, 22 November 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos.
