Nations League· League A - 1· Estádio José Alvalade
Portugal
Wales1-0
FT
Portugal vs Wales Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 24 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Portugal vs Wales tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Portugal +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | - |
| 1XPortugal or Draw | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Wales +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 65% | 1.54 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| X2Wales or Draw | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | - |
| 1Portugal to win | 47% | 2.14 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Portugal -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 35% | 2.84 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.79 | - |
| 2Wales to win | 12% | 8.06 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Wales -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 20.15 | - |
Portugal vs Wales preview & analysis
Match preview
Portugal host Wales in the Nations League (League A - 1) at Estádio José Alvalade on Thursday, 24 September 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Portugal arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 2. Most recently they lost to Spain 0-1 at home. They're 1st in the table with 12 points from 4 games. Wales arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 3. Most recently they lost to Romania 1-2 away. They're 3rd in the table with 3 points from 4 games.
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting between these sides, Portugal have won 1, Wales have won 0 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 2.0 goals, and both teams scored in 0 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Portugal favourites: Portugal 47%, draw 41%, Wales 12%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 - 0.8 in expected goals), with 48% for over 2.5 and 46% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Portugal- 6 JulHSpain0-1
- 3 JulHCroatia2-1
Wales- 6 JunARomania1-2
- 2 JunHGhana1-1
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Portugal vs Wales: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Portugal vs Wales?
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Portugal are favourites. Our model gives Portugal a 47% chance of winning, Wales 12%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Wales?
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We rate both teams to score at 46%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Portugal vs Wales kick off?
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Portugal vs Wales kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Thursday, 24 September 2026 at Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon.
