Champions League· League Stage - 5· Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
Napoli24 Nov
Manchester City vs Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips
Tuesday, 24 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.2
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Match probabilities
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More Manchester City vs Napoli tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Manchester City +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XManchester City or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Napoli +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | - |
| X2Napoli or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| 1Manchester City to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.71 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Manchester City -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 35% | 2.82 | - |
| 2Napoli to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Napoli -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.42 | - |
Manchester City vs Napoli preview & analysis
Match preview
Manchester City host Napoli in the Champions League (League Stage - 5) at Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, 24 November 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Manchester City arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to Paris Saint Germain 2-4 at home. They're 17th in the table with 3 points from 2 games. Napoli arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Most recently they lost to Villarreal 1-3 away. They're 32nd in the table with 0 points from 2 games.
Head to head
In the last 5 meetings between these sides, Manchester City have won 3, Napoli have won 1 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 3.2 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Manchester City narrow favourites: Manchester City 44%, draw 38%, Napoli 18%. We expect around 3.3 goals (2.1 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 63% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 63% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Manchester City 2-1 Napoli.
Recent form
Manchester City- 14 OctHParis Saint Germain2-4
- 11 OctALiverpool3-0
- 20 SeptHSunderland5-3
- 17 SeptHNorwich5-0
- 13 SeptAManchester United1-0
Napoli- 13 OctAVillarreal1-3
- 10 OctHFrosinone3-0
- 20 SeptAFiorentina1-1
- 13 SeptHBologna1-0
- 9 SeptHArsenal0-1
Head to head
Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 |  Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 3 |  Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 15 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 |  Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 30 |  FC Porto | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 |  Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lask Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 |  Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Manchester City vs Napoli: FAQ
What is the Manchester City vs Napoli prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Manchester City 2-1 Napoli.
Who is the favourite to win Manchester City vs Napoli?
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Manchester City are favourites. Our model gives Manchester City a 44% chance of winning, Napoli 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Napoli?
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We rate both teams to score at 60%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Manchester City vs Napoli kick off?
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Manchester City vs Napoli kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday, 24 November 2026 at Etihad Stadium, Manchester.
