Liga MX· Apertura - 1· Estadio Akron
Guadalajara Chivas
Toluca0-2
FT
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 19 July 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 83% | 1.20 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Guadalajara Chivas +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| 1XGuadalajara Chivas or Draw | 58% | 1.74 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | - |
| 2Toluca to win | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.36 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.79 | - |
| 1Guadalajara Chivas to win | 17% | 5.95 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Guadalajara Chivas -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 14.02 | - |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
Guadalajara Chivas host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 1) at Estadio Akron on Sunday, 19 July 2026, with kick-off at 01:07 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Guadalajara Chivas have won 1, Toluca have won 3 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 1.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Guadalajara Chivas 17%, draw 41%, Toluca 42%. We expect around 2.6 goals (0.9 - 1.7 in expected goals), with 48% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
+
Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Guadalajara Chivas a 17% chance of winning, Toluca 42%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
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We rate both teams to score at 49%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca kick off?
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Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca kicks off at 01:07 UTC on Sunday, 19 July 2026 at Estadio Akron, Zapopan.
