Nations League· League A - 3· Stade de France
France
Italy1-1
FT
France vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 2 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More France vs Italy tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5France +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XFrance or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Italy +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| X2Italy or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 46% | 2.17 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | - |
| 1France to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5France -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.13 | - |
| 2Italy to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Italy -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 13.22 | - |
France vs Italy preview & analysis
Match preview
France host Italy in the Nations League (League A - 3) at Stade de France on Friday, 2 October 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
France arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Most recently they beat Belgium 1-0 away. They're 1st in the table with 10 points from 4 games. Italy arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Most recently they beat Türkiye 4-1 away. They're 2nd in the table with 7 points from 4 games.
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings between these sides, France have won 2, Italy have won 2 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes France narrow favourites: France 44%, draw 38%, Italy 18%. We expect around 2.9 goals (1.8 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 54% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Recent form
France- 28 SeptABelgium1-0
- 25 SeptATürkiye1-0
- 18 JulHEngland4-6
- 14 JulHSpain0-2
Italy- 28 SeptATürkiye4-1
- 25 SeptHBelgium0-2
- 7 JunAGreece1-0
- 3 JunALuxembourg1-0
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
France vs Italy: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win France vs Italy?
+
France are favourites. Our model gives France a 44% chance of winning, Italy 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in France vs Italy?
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We rate both teams to score at 54%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does France vs Italy kick off?
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France vs Italy kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Friday, 2 October 2026 at Stade de France, Paris.
