Copa Libertadores· Semi-finals· Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo0-0
FT
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 16 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams NOT to score
Predicted score
0-1
Fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
0.8 - 1.3
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Expert analysis
Flamengo momentum seals both not to score
Analysis by Diego Ferraz
LaLiga, Serie A & South America ·
Flamengo sit top of the table and boast three wins in their last five games. Estudiantes have one win, one draw and three losses recently. The model probabilities and expected goals point to a controlled first leg.
Form and Context
Flamengo's shape contrasts sharply with Estudiantes' recent results.
- Flamengo have 3W 2D 0L in last five games, scored 8 and conceded 5.
- They are unbeaten in seven matches and top the domestic table.
- Estudiantes show 1W 1D 3L, scored 7 and conceded 8.
- Over 2.5 goals in 4 of Estudiantes' games but BTTS in 3.
- Flamengo won group with 16 points from 6 while Estudiantes took 9.
Team News
Injuries and suspensions hit both sides hard.
- Estudiantes missing Gabriel Neves injured, Tomás Palacios and Leandro González Pirez suspended.
- Marcos Rojo unavailable after failing CONMEBOL registration.
- Flamengo without Danilo jaw fracture, Giorgian de Arrascaeta wrist surgery and Jorginho suspended.
- Ayrton Lucas and Evertton Araújo expected to miss post-injury.
- Five Flamengo players unavailable for Argentina trip.
Key Matchup Tactics
Pressing and key duels will decide this first leg.
- Flamengo advanced 3-1 aggregate past Independiente del Valle.
- Estudiantes finished second in group with 9 points.
- Recent H2H includes Flamengo's 1-0 win in May 2026.
- Estudiantes have home advantage in La Plata.
- Both sides motivated to reach the final.
The Numbers
Model points to low scoring as most likely outcome.
- Expected goals 0.78 home and 1.29 away.
- Most likely score 0-1.
- Over 2.5 goals at 34%.
- BTTS probability 41% so both not to score at 1.6 odds.
- Strong probability pick over big value price.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Flamengo unbeaten in seven games
- 2Estudiantes lost three of last five
- 3Model BTTS at 41% and low expected goals
Verdict
Both teams NOT to score at 1.6 odds. The strong probability pick matches the tactical shape, injuries and model probabilities for a controlled semi-final.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Flamengo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| X2Flamengo or Draw | 79% | 1.27 | 1.23 |
| AH1 +1.5Estudiantes L.P. +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 77% | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.38 |
| 1XEstudiantes L.P. or Draw | 55% | 1.82 | 1.77 |
| 2Flamengo to win | 45% | 2.22 | 2.15 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 41% | 2.45 | 2.31 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.91 | 2.62 |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.97 | 3.04 |
| AH2 -1.5Flamengo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 23% | 4.29 | 3.88 |
| 1Estudiantes L.P. to win | 21% | 4.72 | 4.33 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 5.98 | 5.20 |
| AH1 -1.5Estudiantes L.P. -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 15.35 | 11.00 |
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.05 | - | - | 2.25 | 1.60 |
| 1xBet | 4.33 | 3.04 | 2.07 | 2.62 | 1.38 | 2.31 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 2.90 | 2.15 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.38 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 3.88 | 2.95 | 2.09 | 2.56 | 1.40 | 2.22 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 2.90 | 2.10 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.56 | 1.43 | 2.25 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 4.25 | 3.06 | 2.09 | 2.78 | 1.46 | - | - |
| SBO | 3.71 | 2.83 | 2.06 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 4.30 | 3.10 | 2.12 | 2.85 | 1.45 | 2.30 | 1.57 |
Recent form
Estudiantes L.P.- 10 OctACentral Cordoba de Santiago2-2
- 5 OctHGimnasia M.3-0
- 2 OctAPlatense0-1
- 26 SeptHRosario Central1-3
- 22 SeptALanus1-2
Flamengo- 11 OctHFluminense1-0
- 8 OctASantos2-2
- 20 SeptHRB Bragantino2-1
- 18 SeptHIndependiente del Valle1-1
- 13 SeptHCorinthians2-1
Head to head
Copa Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 |  Independiente Medellin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 |  Cusco | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo: FAQ
What is the Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams NOT to score at odds of 1.60. Our predicted score is Estudiantes L.P. 0-1 Flamengo.
Who is the favourite to win Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
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Flamengo are favourites. Our model gives Estudiantes L.P. a 21% chance of winning, Flamengo 45%, and the draw 34%.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
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We rate both teams to score at 41%, so BTTS No is the better bet.
When does Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo kick off?
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Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo kicks off at 00:30 UTC on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata.
