Championship· Regular Season - 15· Pride Park
Derby
Bolton6 Nov
Derby vs Bolton Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 6 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
1.3 - 2.0
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Derby vs Bolton tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Bolton +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Bolton or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Derby +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.57 | - |
| 1XDerby or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| 2Bolton to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.74 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Bolton -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.37 | - |
| 1Derby to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Derby -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.80 | - |
Derby vs Bolton preview & analysis
Match preview
Derby host Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 15) at Pride Park on Friday, 6 November 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Derby are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to QPR 1-4 away. They're 23rd in the table with 6 points from 10 games. Bolton arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Most recently they beat Wolves 3-1 away. They're 14th in the table with 13 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Derby have won 3, Bolton have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.0 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Bolton narrow favourites: Derby 23%, draw 38%, Bolton 39%. We expect around 3.3 goals (1.3 - 2.0 in expected goals), with 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 64% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Derby 1-2 Bolton.
Recent form
Derby- 14 OctAQPR1-4
- 10 OctHWrexham1-1
- 19 SeptABurnley1-1
- 12 SeptHBirmingham1-2
- 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
Bolton- 13 OctAWolves3-1
- 10 OctHStoke City1-2
- 20 SeptANorwich4-3
- 12 SeptHCardiff1-0
- 8 SeptHWest Ham2-3
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 |  Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Derby vs Bolton: FAQ
What is the Derby vs Bolton prediction?
+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Derby 1-2 Bolton.
Who is the favourite to win Derby vs Bolton?
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Bolton are favourites. Our model gives Derby a 23% chance of winning, Bolton 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
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We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
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Derby vs Bolton kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026 at Pride Park, Derby.
