Premier League· Regular Season - 11· Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
Leeds21 Nov
Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.3
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Match probabilities
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More Chelsea vs Leeds tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Chelsea +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XChelsea or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.56 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Leeds +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.60 | - |
| X2Leeds or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| 1Chelsea to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Chelsea -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.67 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| 2Leeds to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Leeds -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.07 | - |
Chelsea vs Leeds preview & analysis
Match preview
Chelsea host Leeds in the Premier League (Regular Season - 11) at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Chelsea arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 11. Most recently they beat Bournemouth 5-1 at home. They're 6th in the table with 10 points from 6 games. Leeds arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Most recently they lost to Arsenal 1-2 away. They're 7th in the table with 9 points from 6 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Chelsea have won 4, Leeds have won 1 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 4.0 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Chelsea narrow favourites: Chelsea 44%, draw 38%, Leeds 18%. We expect around 3.5 goals (2.2 - 1.3 in expected goals), with 68% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 68% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Chelsea 2-1 Leeds.
Recent form
Chelsea- 10 OctHBournemouth5-1
- 18 SeptABrentford0-3
- 12 SeptHHull City2-2
- 9 SeptHLeeds6-3
- 6 SeptAArsenal1-2
Leeds- 10 OctAArsenal1-2
- 20 SeptHCrystal Palace0-0
- 14 SeptHNewcastle4-1
- 9 SeptAChelsea3-6
- 5 SeptABrighton1-1
Head to head
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 |  Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 |  Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 |  Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 |  Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Chelsea vs Leeds: FAQ
What is the Chelsea vs Leeds prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Chelsea 2-1 Leeds.
Who is the favourite to win Chelsea vs Leeds?
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Chelsea are favourites. Our model gives Chelsea a 44% chance of winning, Leeds 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Leeds?
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We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Chelsea vs Leeds kick off?
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Chelsea vs Leeds kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday, 21 November 2026 at Stamford Bridge, London.
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