Bundesliga· Regular Season - 6· BayArena
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg18 Oct
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
2.3 - 1.0
Add to My Teams
Pick the teams and leagues you care about. We save them on this device, no sign-up needed.
Fan vote
Who will win?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
How many goals?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
Expert analysis
Leverkusen vs Freiburg: both attacks point to goals at the BayArena
Analysis by Lena Vogel
Bundesliga, Ligue 1 & European leagues ·
Fourth hosts first in one of the Bundesliga's most explosive fixtures, and both sides arrive in outstanding scoring form. With the model pricing both teams to score at 63%, BTTS at 1.50 is the most likely outcome here.
Form & Context
This is a top-of-the-table clash between two unbeaten sides who have been scoring freely.
- Freiburg lead the league with 13 points from five, Leverkusen sit fourth on 10.
- Freiburg have scored 16 in their last five, with over 2.5 goals in all five of those games.
- Leverkusen have scored 14 in their last five, including a 4-3 win at Mainz and a 4-0 European win.
- Patrik Schick has scored on each of the opening five league matchdays, according to the Bundesliga.
- The last five head-to-heads produced goals, including a 3-3 in March 2026 and a 5-1 Leverkusen win.
Team News
With two days to kick-off, line-ups are provisional, but the absences are clearer on Freiburg's side.
- Freiburg's leading scorer Yuito Suzuki (4 league goals) is suspended after his red card against Schalke, the Bundesliga reports.
- Florent Muslija is out with a knee injury; Jan-Niklas Beste is questionable.
- Leverkusen are without Ben Seghir, Doue, Eichhorn and Kofane; Terrier and Culbreath carry fitness doubts.
- Leverkusen travel to OFI Crete on 22 October, so squad management is a factor, per the Bundesliga.
Key Matchup
Both sides play front-foot football, and Freiburg's away games have consistently delivered goals.
- Freiburg's games have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and BTTS landed in 4 of those.
- Leverkusen have conceded 5 in five and still won four, showing opponents do create against them.
- Even without Suzuki, Freiburg's attack features Höler, Matanovic and Scherhant in a confident front line.
- Scherhant told the Bundesliga Freiburg will "try to win every game", suggesting they won't sit back.
The Numbers
The model reads this as a high-scoring game where both teams get on the sheet.
- Model probabilities: over 2.5 goals at 64%, BTTS at 63%, most likely score 2-1.
- Expected goals of 2.25 for Leverkusen and 1.05 for Freiburg support scoring on both sides.
- The honest risk: Leverkusen have not conceded at home in the league this season (4-0 and 2-0 wins), and Suzuki's absence trims Freiburg's threat.
- Still, at 1.50 against a 63% probability, the price reflects the likeliest script rather than a long shot.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Both teams in red-hot scoring form: 14 and 16 goals across their last five
- 2Model gives BTTS 63% and over 2.5 goals 64%, with 2-1 the most likely score
- 3Head-to-head history is packed with goals, including a 3-3 in March 2026
Verdict
Both teams to score at 1.50 is the pick - the single most likely outcome in a fixture where both attacks are flying. The main caveat is Leverkusen's perfect home defensive record, but the weight of form, history and expected goals all points to goals at both ends.
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Bayer Leverkusen +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| 1XBayer Leverkusen or Draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 1.43 |
| AH2 +1.5SC Freiburg +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 57% | 1.74 | 1.52 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.74 |
| 1Bayer Leverkusen to win | 54% | 1.84 | 1.75 |
| X2SC Freiburg or Draw | 46% | 2.19 | 2.21 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| AH1 -1.5Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 43% | 2.35 | 2.78 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 37% | 2.69 | 2.50 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.79 | 2.58 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.88 | 4.42 |
| 2SC Freiburg to win | 20% | 5.01 | 4.62 |
| AH2 -1.5SC Freiburg -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 18.31 | 8.70 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 | - | - | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.42 | 4.62 | 1.43 | 2.58 | 1.48 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 1.43 | 2.58 | 1.48 | 2.46 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.45 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 4.54 | 4.36 | 1.47 | 2.72 | - | - |
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen- 15 OctALech Poznan4-0
- 10 OctAFSV Mainz 054-3
- 20 SeptHRB Leipzig2-0
- 16 SeptHCelje2-0
- 12 SeptAFC Augsburg2-2
SC Freiburg- 15 OctHFK Jablonec3-2
- 11 OctHFC Schalke 042-1
- 3 OctHFC Luzern4-2
- 19 SeptAEintracht Frankfurt2-2
- 12 SeptHBorussia Mönchengladbach5-0
Head to head
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 |  SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 |  1. FC Köln | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 |  FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: FAQ
What is the Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction?
+
Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.50. Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg.
Who is the favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
+
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites. Our model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 54% chance of winning, SC Freiburg 20%, and the draw 26%.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
+
We rate both teams to score at 63%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
+
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kicks off at 13:30 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen.
