Brasileirão· Regular Season - 29· Arena da Baixada
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG2-2
FT
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 9 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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More Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Atletico Paranaense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| AH2 +1.5Atletico-MG +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 79% | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| 1XAtletico Paranaense or Draw | 71% | 1.41 | 1.29 |
| X2Atletico-MG or Draw | 60% | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.81 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 52% | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 48% | 2.11 | 1.95 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | 2.04 |
| 1Atletico Paranaense to win | 40% | 2.53 | 2.16 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.19 | 3.35 |
| 2Atletico-MG to win | 29% | 3.45 | 3.74 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.67 | 3.20 |
| AH1 -1.5Atletico Paranaense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 21% | 4.72 | 3.70 |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico-MG -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.41 | 7.30 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.40 | - | - | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 2.04 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.35 | 3.65 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.12 | 3.62 | 1.99 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.90 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.92 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.28 | 3.86 | 2.05 | 1.85 | - | - |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.95 | 3.04 | 1.99 | 1.83 | - | - |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.65 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG preview & analysis
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Atletico-MG in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 29) at Arena da Baixada on Friday, 9 October 2026, with kick-off at 23:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Atletico Paranaense arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Most recently they beat Bahia 2-1 at home. They're 3rd in the table with 53 points from 30 games. Atletico-MG arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 3 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Most recently they beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at home. They're 7th in the table with 47 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Atletico-MG have won 4 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense narrow favourites: Atletico Paranaense 40%, draw 31%, Atletico-MG 29%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 - 1.1 in expected goals), with 47% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense- 20 SeptHBahia2-1
- 12 SeptACoritiba3-3
- 6 SeptACruzeiro1-3
- 30 AugHFluminense3-3
Atletico-MG- 3 OctHRB Bragantino1-0
- 19 SeptHChapecoense-sc1-1
- 16 SeptHSantos4-2
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
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Atletico Paranaense are favourites. Our model gives Atletico Paranaense a 40% chance of winning, Atletico-MG 29%, and the draw 31%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
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We rate both teams to score at 52%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG kick off?
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Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG kicks off at 23:00 UTC on Friday, 9 October 2026 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
