Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 34· Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca
Tondela3-1
FT
Arouca vs Tondela Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 16 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Arouca vs Tondela tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Arouca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Tondela +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 81% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | - |
| 1XArouca or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| X2Tondela or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 51% | 1.94 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 49% | 2.06 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.32 | - |
| 1Arouca to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Tondela to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.52 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Arouca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 19% | 5.40 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Tondela -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.04 | - |
Arouca vs Tondela preview & analysis
Match preview
Arouca host Tondela in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 34) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca on Saturday, 16 May 2026, with kick-off at 17:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Arouca have won 3, Tondela have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Arouca narrow favourites: Arouca 38%, draw 32%, Tondela 30%. We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 - 1.1 in expected goals), with 43% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | +48 | 88 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | +65 | 82 |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | +49 | 80 |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | +28 | 59 |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | +13 | 56 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | +9 | 50 |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -12 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | -17 | 42 |
| 9 |  Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | -12 | 42 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -17 | 39 |
| 12 |  Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | -22 | 36 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 |  Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | -8 | 34 |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -18 | 30 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -26 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -28 | 28 |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | -40 | 21 |
Arouca vs Tondela: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Arouca vs Tondela?
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Arouca are favourites. Our model gives Arouca a 38% chance of winning, Tondela 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Tondela?
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We rate both teams to score at 49%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Arouca vs Tondela kick off?
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Arouca vs Tondela kicks off at 17:00 UTC on Saturday, 16 May 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca.
