La Liga· Regular Season - 3· Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Villarreal1-0
FT
Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 28 August 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Alaves vs Villarreal tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Alaves +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XAlaves or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Villarreal +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | - |
| X2Villarreal or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| 1Alaves to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.71 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Alaves -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 35% | 2.82 | - |
| 2Villarreal to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Villarreal -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.42 | - |
Alaves vs Villarreal preview & analysis
Match preview
Alaves host Villarreal in the La Liga (Regular Season - 3) at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Friday, 28 August 2026, with kick-off at 19:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Alaves have won 1, Villarreal have won 2 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Alaves narrow favourites: Alaves 44%, draw 38%, Villarreal 18%. We expect around 3.3 goals (2.1 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 63% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Alaves vs Villarreal: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
+
Alaves are favourites. Our model gives Alaves a 44% chance of winning, Villarreal 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
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We rate both teams to score at 60%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
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Alaves vs Villarreal kicks off at 19:30 UTC on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
