Eredivisie· Regular Season - 7· Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax
Excelsior2-2
FT
Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 19 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Ajax vs Excelsior tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Ajax +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XAjax or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Excelsior +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| X2Excelsior or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 1Ajax to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Ajax -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.13 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 2Excelsior to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Excelsior -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.74 | - |
Ajax vs Excelsior preview & analysis
Match preview
Ajax host Excelsior in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 7) at Johan Cruijff Arena on Saturday, 19 September 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Ajax arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Willem II 5-1 at home. They're 5th in the table with 15 points from 8 games. Excelsior arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Most recently they lost to Utrecht 1-2 at home. They're 9th in the table with 11 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Ajax have won 2, Excelsior have won 1 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 4.7 goals, and both teams scored in 6 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Ajax narrow favourites: Ajax 44%, draw 38%, Excelsior 18%. We expect around 3.8 goals (2.4 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Ajax- 15 SeptHWillem II5-1
- 12 SeptAFortuna Sittard5-1
- 5 SeptHPSV Eindhoven1-3
Excelsior- 13 SeptHUtrecht1-2
- 8 SeptANEC Nijmegen2-2
- 5 SeptAWillem II3-0
- 29 AugHSparta Rotterdam2-1
Head to head
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Ajax vs Excelsior: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Ajax vs Excelsior?
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Ajax are favourites. Our model gives Ajax a 44% chance of winning, Excelsior 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Excelsior?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Ajax vs Excelsior kick off?
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Ajax vs Excelsior kicks off at 18:00 UTC on Saturday, 19 September 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
