Brasileirão· Regular Season - 15· Estádio São Januário
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense1-0
FT
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 11 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Vasco DA Gama +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Atletico Paranaense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 82% | 1.22 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 | - |
| 1XVasco DA Gama or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| X2Atletico Paranaense or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 54% | 1.87 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 46% | 2.15 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.48 | - |
| 1Vasco DA Gama to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Atletico Paranaense to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 4.98 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Vasco DA Gama -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 18% | 5.60 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico Paranaense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.31 | - |
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense preview & analysis
Match preview
Vasco DA Gama host Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 15) at Estádio São Januário on Monday, 11 May 2026, with kick-off at 23:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 3 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.0 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Vasco DA Gama narrow favourites: Vasco DA Gama 38%, draw 32%, Atletico Paranaense 30%. We expect around 2.3 goals (1.2 - 1.1 in expected goals), with 40% for over 2.5 and 46% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
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Vasco DA Gama are favourites. Our model gives Vasco DA Gama a 38% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
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We rate both teams to score at 46%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
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Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense kicks off at 23:30 UTC on Monday, 11 May 2026 at Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro.
