Liga MX· Apertura - 9· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
Santos Laguna2-3
FT
Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 21 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Toluca vs Santos Laguna tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | - |
| 1XToluca or Draw | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Santos Laguna +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 66% | 1.51 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 56% | 1.80 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | - |
| X2Santos Laguna or Draw | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| 1Toluca to win | 47% | 2.14 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 44% | 2.25 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 34% | 2.94 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.13 | - |
| 2Santos Laguna to win | 12% | 8.06 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Santos Laguna -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 20.56 | - |
Toluca vs Santos Laguna preview & analysis
Match preview
Toluca host Santos Laguna in the Liga MX (Apertura - 9) at Estadio Nemesio Diez on Monday, 21 September 2026, with kick-off at 00:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Toluca arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 2 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Most recently they beat Puebla 1-0 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games. Santos Laguna arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 2. Most recently they beat FC Juarez 2-1 at home. They're 14th in the table with 13 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toluca have won 4, Santos Laguna have won 2 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.3 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca favourites: Toluca 47%, draw 41%, Santos Laguna 12%. We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 - 0.8 in expected goals), with 46% for over 2.5 and 44% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Toluca- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
- 13 SeptHAtlas5-2
Santos Laguna- 14 SeptHFC Juarez2-1
- 7 SeptACruz Azul0-1
- 30 AugHTigres UANL0-0
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Toluca vs Santos Laguna: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
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Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Toluca a 47% chance of winning, Santos Laguna 12%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
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We rate both teams to score at 44%, so BTTS No is the better bet.
When does Toluca vs Santos Laguna kick off?
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Toluca vs Santos Laguna kicks off at 00:00 UTC on Monday, 21 September 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
