Liga MX· Clausura - 17· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
Leon4-1
FT
Toluca vs Leon Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 26 April 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
Add to My Teams
Pick the teams and leagues you care about. We save them on this device, no sign-up needed.
Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Toluca vs Leon tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 85% | 1.17 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Leon +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 78% | 1.28 | - |
| 1XToluca or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| X2Leon or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 60% | 1.67 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 40% | 2.50 | - |
| 1Toluca to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Leon to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 22% | 4.52 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Leon -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 15% | 6.84 | - |
Toluca vs Leon preview & analysis
Match preview
Toluca host Leon in the Liga MX (Clausura - 17) at Estadio Nemesio Diez on Sunday, 26 April 2026, with kick-off at 01:05 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toluca have won 2, Leon have won 1 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 3.7 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Toluca 38%, draw 32%, Leon 30%. We expect around 3.0 goals (1.6 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 58% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | +17 | 36 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | +16 | 36 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | +13 | 33 |
| 4 |  CF Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 |  Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +10 | 25 |
| 8 |  Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +3 | 25 |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 | Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 |  Club Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  FC Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 |  Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 |  Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -18 | 12 |
Toluca vs Leon: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Toluca vs Leon?
+
Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Toluca a 38% chance of winning, Leon 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Leon?
+
We rate both teams to score at 60%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Toluca vs Leon kick off?
+
Toluca vs Leon kicks off at 01:05 UTC on Sunday, 26 April 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
