Championship· Regular Season - 18· St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton
Middlesbrough27 Nov
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 27 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.3
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Southampton vs Middlesbrough tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Southampton +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XSouthampton or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.56 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Middlesbrough +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.60 | - |
| X2Middlesbrough or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| 1Southampton to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Southampton -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.67 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| 2Middlesbrough to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Middlesbrough -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.07 | - |
Southampton vs Middlesbrough preview & analysis
Match preview
Southampton host Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 18) at St. Mary's Stadium on Friday, 27 November 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Southampton arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Most recently they beat Norwich 1-0 away. They're 7th in the table with 16 points from 10 games. Middlesbrough arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Most recently they beat Stoke City 3-2 away. They're 2nd in the table with 21 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Southampton have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 2 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Southampton narrow favourites: Southampton 44%, draw 38%, Middlesbrough 18%. We expect around 3.5 goals (2.2 - 1.3 in expected goals), with 68% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 68% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough.
Recent form
Southampton- 14 OctANorwich1-0
- 11 OctHPortsmouth1-0
- 19 SeptAWrexham1-2
- 12 SeptHBristol City4-1
- 8 SeptHSwansea3-1
Middlesbrough- 13 OctAStoke City3-2
- 10 OctHWolves1-0
- 19 SeptABirmingham2-2
- 15 SeptHMillwall2-2
- 12 SeptHNorwich4-3
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: FAQ
What is the Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough.
Who is the favourite to win Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
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Southampton are favourites. Our model gives Southampton a 44% chance of winning, Middlesbrough 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
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We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Southampton vs Middlesbrough kick off?
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Southampton vs Middlesbrough kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Friday, 27 November 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton.
