La Liga· Regular Season - 5· Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano4-1
FT
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 12 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Real Madrid +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XReal Madrid or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Rayo Vallecano +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| X2Rayo Vallecano or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 1Real Madrid to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Real Madrid -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.13 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 2Rayo Vallecano to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Rayo Vallecano -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.74 | - |
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano preview & analysis
Match preview
Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga (Regular Season - 5) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium on Saturday, 12 September 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Real Madrid arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 1 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Most recently they beat Inter 2-1 at home. They're 4th in the table with 18 points from 8 games. Rayo Vallecano arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Most recently they beat Racing Santander 3-2 at home. They're 13th in the table with 8 points from 7 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Real Madrid have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 and 4 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Real Madrid narrow favourites: Real Madrid 44%, draw 38%, Rayo Vallecano 18%. We expect around 3.8 goals (2.4 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Real Madrid- 8 SeptHInter2-1
Rayo Vallecano- 5 SeptHRacing Santander3-2
- 31 AugABarcelona2-5
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
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Real Madrid are favourites. Our model gives Real Madrid a 44% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
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Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Saturday, 12 September 2026 at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid.
