Championship· Regular Season - 7· Pride Park Stadium
Derby
Birmingham1-2
FT
Derby vs Birmingham Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 12 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Derby vs Birmingham tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Birmingham +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.12 | - |
| X2Birmingham or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Derby +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | - |
| 1XDerby or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 57% | 1.76 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.80 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 43% | 2.32 | - |
| 2Birmingham to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Birmingham -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 1Derby to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Derby -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 9.45 | - |
Derby vs Birmingham preview & analysis
Match preview
Derby host Birmingham in the Championship (Regular Season - 7) at Pride Park Stadium on Saturday, 12 September 2026, with kick-off at 11:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Derby arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 2 matches, scoring 0 and conceding 4. Most recently they lost to West Brom 0-1 at home. They're 23rd in the table with 6 points from 10 games. Birmingham arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Most recently they lost to Norwich 1-2 away. They're 4th in the table with 17 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Derby have won 2, Birmingham have won 2 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.7 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Birmingham narrow favourites: Derby 23%, draw 38%, Birmingham 39%. We expect around 2.9 goals (1.2 - 1.7 in expected goals), with 55% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Derby- 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
- 5 SeptAWest Ham0-3
Birmingham- 9 SeptANorwich1-2
- 6 SeptHWolves2-2
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Derby vs Birmingham: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Derby vs Birmingham?
+
Birmingham are favourites. Our model gives Derby a 23% chance of winning, Birmingham 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Birmingham?
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We rate both teams to score at 57%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Derby vs Birmingham kick off?
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Derby vs Birmingham kicks off at 11:30 UTC on Saturday, 12 September 2026 at Pride Park Stadium, Derby.
