Liga MX· Clausura - Quarter-finals· Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
CF Pachuca
Toluca2-0
FT
CF Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 11 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More CF Pachuca vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5CF Pachuca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 84% | 1.19 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 75% | 1.33 | - |
| 1XCF Pachuca or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| 1CF Pachuca to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Toluca to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| AH1 -1.5CF Pachuca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 25% | 4.05 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 16% | 6.23 | - |
CF Pachuca vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
CF Pachuca host Toluca in the Liga MX (Clausura - Quarter-finals) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo on Monday, 11 May 2026, with kick-off at 23:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, CF Pachuca have won 1, Toluca have won 2 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes CF Pachuca narrow favourites: CF Pachuca 38%, draw 32%, Toluca 30%. We expect around 3.5 goals (1.9 - 1.6 in expected goals), with 68% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | +17 | 36 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | +16 | 36 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | +13 | 33 |
| 4 | CF Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 |  Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +10 | 25 |
| 8 |  Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +3 | 25 |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 |  Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 |  Club Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  FC Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 |  Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 |  Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -18 | 12 |
CF Pachuca vs Toluca: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
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CF Pachuca are favourites. Our model gives CF Pachuca a 38% chance of winning, Toluca 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does CF Pachuca vs Toluca kick off?
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CF Pachuca vs Toluca kicks off at 23:00 UTC on Monday, 11 May 2026 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto.
