Championship· Regular Season - 17· Turf Moor
Burnley
Birmingham25 Nov
Burnley vs Birmingham Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 25 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.9
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Match probabilities
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More Burnley vs Birmingham tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Birmingham +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Birmingham or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Burnley +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 71% | 1.41 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| 1XBurnley or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| 2Birmingham to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Birmingham -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 29% | 3.45 | - |
| 1Burnley to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Burnley -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.94 | - |
Burnley vs Birmingham preview & analysis
Match preview
Burnley host Birmingham in the Championship (Regular Season - 17) at Turf Moor on Wednesday, 25 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Burnley arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Most recently they lost to Wolves 1-2 at home. They're 21st in the table with 8 points from 11 games. Birmingham arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Preston 4-0 at home. They're 4th in the table with 17 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Burnley have won 3, Birmingham have won 0 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Birmingham narrow favourites: Burnley 23%, draw 38%, Birmingham 39%. We expect around 3.2 goals (1.3 - 1.9 in expected goals), with 62% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 62% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Burnley 1-2 Birmingham.
Recent form
Burnley- 16 OctHWolves1-2
- 13 OctHCharlton2-2
- 10 OctAWatford4-0
- 19 SeptHDerby1-1
- 12 SeptASwansea1-3
Birmingham- 13 OctHPreston4-0
- 10 OctAWest Brom1-0
- 19 SeptHMiddlesbrough2-2
- 12 SeptADerby2-1
- 9 SeptANorwich1-2
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Burnley vs Birmingham: FAQ
What is the Burnley vs Birmingham prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Burnley 1-2 Birmingham.
Who is the favourite to win Burnley vs Birmingham?
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Birmingham are favourites. Our model gives Burnley a 23% chance of winning, Birmingham 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Birmingham?
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We rate both teams to score at 62%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Burnley vs Birmingham kick off?
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Burnley vs Birmingham kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Wednesday, 25 November 2026 at Turf Moor, Burnley.
