Champions League· Semi-finals· Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal1-1
FT
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Arsenal +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Arsenal or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Atletico Madrid +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 71% | 1.41 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| 1XAtletico Madrid or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| 2Arsenal to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Arsenal -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 29% | 3.45 | - |
| 1Atletico Madrid to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Atletico Madrid -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.94 | - |
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal preview & analysis
Match preview
Atletico Madrid host Arsenal in the Champions League (Semi-finals) at Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday, 29 April 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings between these sides, Atletico Madrid have won 1, Arsenal have won 1 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Arsenal narrow favourites: Atletico Madrid 23%, draw 38%, Arsenal 39%. We expect around 3.2 goals (1.3 - 1.9 in expected goals), with 62% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +19 | 24 |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +12 | 18 |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 17 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 14 |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal?
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Arsenal are favourites. Our model gives Atletico Madrid a 23% chance of winning, Arsenal 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal?
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We rate both teams to score at 62%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal kick off?
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Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.