Champions League· Semi-finals· Emirates Stadium
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid1-0
FT
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips
Tuesday, 5 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Arsenal +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XArsenal or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Atletico Madrid +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| X2Atletico Madrid or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | - |
| 1Arsenal to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Arsenal -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.37 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.79 | - |
| 2Atletico Madrid to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico Madrid -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.91 | - |
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid preview & analysis
Match preview
Arsenal host Atletico Madrid in the Champions League (Semi-finals) at Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, 5 May 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 5 meetings between these sides, Arsenal have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 1 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Arsenal narrow favourites: Arsenal 44%, draw 38%, Atletico Madrid 18%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.7 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 48% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +19 | 24 |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +12 | 18 |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 17 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 14 |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?
+
Arsenal are favourites. Our model gives Arsenal a 44% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?
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We rate both teams to score at 49%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
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Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Tuesday, 5 May 2026 at Emirates Stadium, London.