Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 10
Arouca
Nacional1 Nov
Arouca vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.67
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.1
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Arouca vs Nacional tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Arouca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XArouca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Nacional +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 66% | 1.52 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.60 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| X2Nacional or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| 1Arouca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.49 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.67 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Arouca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 34% | 2.92 | - |
| 2Nacional to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Nacional -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.68 | - |
Arouca vs Nacional preview & analysis
Match preview
Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 10) on Sunday, 1 November 2026, with kick-off at 15:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Arouca arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Estrela 1-0 at home. They're 5th in the table with 14 points from 8 games. Nacional are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 15. Most recently they lost to Rio Ave 2-3 away. They're 16th in the table with 4 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Arouca have won 4, Nacional have won 1 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Arouca narrow favourites: Arouca 44%, draw 38%, Nacional 18%. We expect around 3.1 goals (2.0 - 1.1 in expected goals), with 60% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 60% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Arouca 2-1 Nacional.
Recent form
Arouca- 11 OctHEstrela1-0
- 19 SeptASporting CP2-2
- 13 SeptHSanta Clara1-2
- 7 SeptAEstoril0-0
- 29 AugHMaritimo2-1
Nacional- 11 OctARio Ave2-3
- 19 SeptHFamalicao0-4
- 12 SeptHAlverca1-3
- 5 SeptASporting CP0-2
- 30 AugHEstrela2-3
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Arouca vs Nacional: FAQ
What is the Arouca vs Nacional prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Arouca 2-1 Nacional.
Who is the favourite to win Arouca vs Nacional?
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Arouca are favourites. Our model gives Arouca a 44% chance of winning, Nacional 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Nacional?
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We rate both teams to score at 58%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Arouca vs Nacional kick off?
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Arouca vs Nacional kicks off at 15:30 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026.
