Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 13· FC Alverca Sports Complex
Alverca
Moreirense6 Dec
Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 6 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.0
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Match probabilities
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More Alverca vs Moreirense tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Alverca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XAlverca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Moreirense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.48 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | - |
| X2Moreirense or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 55% | 1.83 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.21 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | - |
| 1Alverca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Alverca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.08 | - |
| 2Moreirense to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Moreirense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 13.10 | - |
Alverca vs Moreirense preview & analysis
Match preview
Alverca host Moreirense in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 13) at FC Alverca Sports Complex on Sunday, 6 December 2026, with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Alverca arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Famalicao 4-1 away. They're 8th in the table with 11 points from 8 games. Moreirense are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to GIL Vicente 0-1 at home. They're 12th in the table with 8 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings between these sides, Alverca have won 1, Moreirense have won 1 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.0 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Alverca narrow favourites: Alverca 44%, draw 38%, Moreirense 18%. We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 55% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 55% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Alverca 1-0 Moreirense.
Recent form
Alverca- 12 OctAFamalicao4-1
- 19 SeptHRio Ave1-0
- 12 SeptANacional3-1
- 5 SeptHSC Braga1-2
- 29 AugHSanta Clara1-1
Moreirense- 9 OctHGIL Vicente0-1
- 20 SeptAVitória SC1-1
- 14 SeptHMaritimo3-1
- 9 SeptHBenfica0-4
- 4 SeptAFC Porto1-2
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Alverca vs Moreirense: FAQ
What is the Alverca vs Moreirense prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Alverca 1-0 Moreirense.
Who is the favourite to win Alverca vs Moreirense?
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Alverca are favourites. Our model gives Alverca a 44% chance of winning, Moreirense 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Moreirense?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Alverca vs Moreirense kick off?
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Alverca vs Moreirense kicks off at 16:00 UTC on Sunday, 6 December 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo.
