Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 11· FC Alverca Sports Complex
Alverca
Casa Pia7 Nov
Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
1.6 - 0.9
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Alverca vs Casa Pia tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Alverca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XAlverca or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Casa Pia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| X2Casa Pia or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | - |
| 1Alverca to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Alverca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 29% | 3.49 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.13 | - |
| 2Casa Pia to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Casa Pia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 14.24 | - |
Alverca vs Casa Pia preview & analysis
Match preview
Alverca host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11) at FC Alverca Sports Complex on Saturday, 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Alverca arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Famalicao 4-1 away. They're 8th in the table with 11 points from 8 games. Casa Pia are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to Santa Clara 0-1 at home. They're 17th in the table with 4 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 3 meetings between these sides, Alverca have won 2, Casa Pia have won 1 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.7 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Alverca narrow favourites: Alverca 44%, draw 38%, Casa Pia 18%. We expect around 2.5 goals (1.6 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 46% for over 2.5 and 47% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 54% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Alverca 1-0 Casa Pia.
Recent form
Alverca- 12 OctAFamalicao4-1
- 19 SeptHRio Ave1-0
- 12 SeptANacional3-1
- 5 SeptHSC Braga1-2
- 29 AugHSanta Clara1-1
Casa Pia- 10 OctHSanta Clara0-1
- 20 SeptAEstoril2-1
- 12 SeptHFC Porto1-4
- 6 SeptAVitória SC0-0
- 30 AugHMoreirense0-1
Head to head
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Alverca vs Casa Pia: FAQ
What is the Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Alverca 1-0 Casa Pia.
Who is the favourite to win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
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Alverca are favourites. Our model gives Alverca a 44% chance of winning, Casa Pia 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
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We rate both teams to score at 47%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Alverca vs Casa Pia kick off?
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Alverca vs Casa Pia kicks off at 18:00 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo.
