La Liga· Regular Season - 38· Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano1-2
FT
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 23 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Alaves +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 86% | 1.16 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Rayo Vallecano +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 80% | 1.26 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| 1XAlaves or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| X2Rayo Vallecano or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 55% | 1.83 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.20 | - |
| 1Alaves to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Rayo Vallecano to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Alaves -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 20% | 4.90 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Rayo Vallecano -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 14% | 7.36 | - |
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano preview & analysis
Match preview
Alaves host Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga (Regular Season - 38) at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Saturday, 23 May 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Alaves have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 4 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 1.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Alaves narrow favourites: Alaves 38%, draw 32%, Rayo Vallecano 30%. We expect around 2.7 goals (1.5 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 51% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | +11 | 60 |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | +5 | 54 |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | -6 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 | 50 |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 49 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | -2 | 46 |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | -12 | 46 |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -15 | 45 |
| 13 |  Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -14 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 |  Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | -8 | 43 |
| 16 |  Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -14 | 42 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 |  Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -10 | 42 |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | -16 | 41 |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -34 | 29 |
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
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Alaves are favourites. Our model gives Alaves a 38% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
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Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Saturday, 23 May 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
