La Liga· Regular Season - 10· Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Malaga23 Oct
Alaves vs Malaga Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 23 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.7 - 0.9
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Match probabilities
More Alaves vs Malaga tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Alaves +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 94% | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| 1XAlaves or Draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| AH2 +1.5Malaga +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.48 | 1.31 |
| 1Alaves to win | 51% | 1.98 | 1.89 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 50% | 1.99 | 1.85 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 50% | 2.01 | 1.91 |
| X2Malaga or Draw | 49% | 2.02 | 2.01 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 | 2.07 |
| AH1 -1.5Alaves -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.09 | 3.22 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.39 | 3.74 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.67 | 3.34 |
| 2Malaga to win | 20% | 5.01 | 4.57 |
| AH2 -1.5Malaga -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 6% | 17.22 | 8.90 |
Alaves vs Malaga odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.20 | - | - | 1.85 | 1.91 |
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.74 | 4.57 | 2.07 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.87 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.64 | 4.45 | 2.01 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 | - | - | - | - |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.36 | 2.04 | 1.81 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.26 | 3.86 | 2.06 | 1.80 | - | - |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.55 | 4.45 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
Alaves vs Malaga preview & analysis
Match preview
Alaves host Malaga in the La Liga (Regular Season - 10) at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Friday, 23 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Alaves are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to Atletico Madrid 1-2 at home. They're 7th in the table with 11 points from 8 games. Malaga arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with Espanyol 1-1 at home. They're 20th in the table with 4 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Alaves have won 4, Malaga have won 1 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Alaves favourites: Alaves 51%, draw 30%, Malaga 20%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.7 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 47% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, which our model rates at a 53% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Alaves 1-0 Malaga.
Recent form
Alaves- 10 OctHAtletico Madrid1-2
- 19 SeptAAthletic Club0-0
- 15 SeptHValencia0-1
- 12 SeptARacing Santander1-2
- 6 SeptHOsasuna5-2
Malaga- 9 OctHEspanyol1-1
- 20 SeptAGetafe0-1
- 17 SeptHVillarreal1-3
- 13 SeptACelta Vigo1-1
- 6 SeptHLevante0-0
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Alaves vs Malaga: FAQ
What is the Alaves vs Malaga prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88. Our predicted score is Alaves 1-0 Malaga.
Who is the favourite to win Alaves vs Malaga?
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Alaves are favourites. Our model gives Alaves a 51% chance of winning, Malaga 20%, and the draw 30%.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Malaga?
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We rate both teams to score at 50%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Alaves vs Malaga kick off?
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Alaves vs Malaga kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
